Weekly Brief

The week was defined by Ukraine's intensive long-range air and maritime interdiction campaign against Russian economic arteries, alongside major internal structural friction in Kyiv. Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian shipping and oil terminals in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea — striking over 100 vessels and forcing a halt to Russian grain and fuel transits — while deep strikes hit infrastructure as far as the Urals. Concurrently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy executed a major military leadership overhaul. Following Fedorov's initial removal on 15 July, nationwide public backlash and military unrest forced President Zelenskyy to replace Gen. Syrskyi on 21 July with Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi — a respected general who aligns with Fedorov's drone-first, modernising vision.moscowtimes

Ground operations remained dominated by localised, high-attrition infantry infiltration rather than large-scale armoured manoeuvre. Tactical progress across major sectors (Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar) yielded only incremental territory shifts. Both forces maintained a high-density, ~40 km-wide uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) "kill zone" along the frontline. Reconnaissance and FPV drones severely restricted armoured mobility, forcing both sides to rely heavily on small-unit infantry assault groups, dismounted logistics, and uncrewed ground vehicles (UGVs) for localised resupply.dignitasreuters

On 20 July, Israel, the US, and Lebanese authorities announced the formal launch of a pilot programme for designated safe/security zones in southern Lebanon under the US-brokered framework agreement signed in late June. In line with the agreement, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) began forward deployment into designated pilot zones — notably entering Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, alongside operations near Froun and Srifa, following partial Israeli posture realignments. The objective is phased Hezbollah disarmament and state authority re-assertion in areas south of the Litani River. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) maintained a strict "Active Enforcement" doctrine, conducting localised precision strikes against suspected Hezbollah arms reconstitutions — with the LAF publicly reporting that IDF strikes hit their own positions. Hezbollah maintained a low profile near the Blue Line, using political leverage in Beirut to resist formal disarmament mandates while covertly preserving subterranean networks north of the Litani.al-monitortimesofisraeltimesofisrael

On 26 July, the Israeli Security Cabinet officially approved the legal framework permitting an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) to enter Gaza, clearing the way for foreign contingents (including troops from Morocco and Uganda) to deploy to areas outside IDF control. Israel maintained strict operational caveats: every foreign contingent requires specific Israeli authorisation, and ISF personnel are restricted from operating within the Israeli-occupied buffer zone east of the designated separation boundaries. This political-military shift follows weeks of high-tempo Israeli zone-enforcement strikes against Hamas commanders and weapons sites, alongside Hamas's administrative dissolution, which intentionally created a governance vacuum.straitstimes

Early in the week (around 20 July), the US military executed a massive forward deployment of aerial refuelling assets (KC-135s and KC-46s) into Israeli installations, specifically Ramon Air Base in southern Israel and Ben Gurion Airport. The build-up was designed to extend the loiter time and strike radius of US combat aircraft operating over Iran and the Persian Gulf without relying solely on Gulf state airbases. Crucially, Washington used this logistical posture to maintain unilateral strike capacity while actively working to keep the Israeli Air Force (IAF) out of direct offensive sorties inside Iran to prevent immediate regional retaliation against Israeli urban centres.misbar

Following 13 consecutive nights of heavy US CENTCOM airstrikes against Iranian coastal defences and IRGC regional sites, fighting temporarily paused over the weekend of 25–26 July. The pause came after intense Iranian ballistic missile and drone counter-offensives across the Gulf, which heavily impacted early-warning arrays, regional maritime traffic, and US logistics nodes. Both sides paused kinetic operations to allow US–Iran diplomatic envoys and Omani mediators space to negotiate maritime access protocols through the Strait of Hormuz.reuters

On 22 July, the Royal Thai Armed Forces, led by Chief of Defence Forces Gen. Ukrit Boontanon, unveiled the completion of a 1.3-kilometre reinforced pilot border fence between border markers 52 and 54 in the Pong Nam Ron district of Chanthaburi province. Built using heavy concrete panels topped with steel mesh and concertina wire, the barrier was explicitly tested and confirmed to resist small-arms fire. The Thai military confirmed plans to immediately expand this into a 7-kilometre second phase (markers 54 to 59) to establish permanent physical access control and territorial anchoring along contested operational sectors.bangkokpost